Implied Probability & Break-Even Calculator
Convert betting odds into their implied probability and the win percentage needed to break even. Select the odds format and enter the price to see results. Learn how implied probability works
What is Implied Probability?
Implied probability represents the likelihood of an outcome as suggested by betting odds. When sportsbooks set odds, they're essentially stating what they believe the probability of each outcome is, plus their built-in margin (vig). Understanding implied probability is fundamental to finding value in sports betting, as it allows you to compare the bookmaker's assessment to your own probability estimate.
For example, odds of -110 (American) or 1.91 (decimal) imply a win probability of approximately 52.38%. This is also your break-even percentage. You need to win at least 52.38% of your bets at these odds to break even over time. If you believe the true probability is higher than the implied probability, you may have found a value bet.
This calculator instantly converts American odds (e.g., -110, +150) or decimal odds (e.g., 1.91, 2.50) into implied probability percentages. Use it before placing any bet to understand what win rate you need to achieve profitability and to identify potential value opportunities in the betting market.